Seven Human Errors
It takes seven (7) things to go wrong for a human-related disaster to occur. These human errors (which could be mitigated if caught), then result in a "human-related disaster".
Quoting from Malcolm Gladwell’s Outliers, “The typical accident involves seven consecutive human errors. One of the pilots does something wrong that by itself is not a problem. Then one of them makes another error on top of that, which combined with the first error still does not amount to catastrophe. But then they make a third error on top of that, and then another and another and another and another, and it is the combination of all those errors that leads to disaster.” Hence the term.
I've read through several articles recently and been cautioned about dwelling on 2016 to make a comparison to 2024. However, that is the most recent election that turned our world upside down. The similarities between 2016 and 2024 exist and, I feel, that thread has to be followed.
The 2016 election results were a human-related disaster. This didn’t happen in isolation. There were seven egregious human factors that contributed. These factors, piled on top of each other, resulted in 4 of the worst years in American standing. They led to a twice impeached felon with a 34 count felony who had 6 bankruptcies in charge of the nuclear codes. They led to an authoritarian with little regard for honor, decency, ethics, or even the constitution. In this post, I attempt to analyze what happened in 2016, and compare events to 2024.
The Democratic candidate: both the 2016 candidate and 2024 candidates are women making this a key factor in comparison. The key difference is that 2016 followed a 2-term democratic administration, while 2024 follows a single-term democratic administration.
HRC (Hillary Clinton): Madame Secretary, who was arguably one of the most qualified candidates (much more qualified than her opponent) assumed rust belt states would not fall, and so therefore did not place much focus on those states. She instead, wasted resources trying to win states like Arizona and Georgia (she did not win them). This was despite learning from Gore's campaign with the needless loss of New Hampshire (7211 votes). It is, of course, easy to be the Monday morning QB, but Clinton also did not use resources wisely (especially Bill Clinton). Clinton was also a policy wonk, and didn't get that the majority voted on messaging - not policy. Ultimately, HRC lost the election despite winning the popular vote, much due to her hubris.
MVP (Madame Vice President, Kamala Devi Harris): She is also the most qualified candidate and has proven to be more than capable of holding the office of the Presidency. So far, the campaign has seen very few hiccups, if any. She has been to all swing states, as have her surrogates including Walz. Her messages resonate (as seen by the thunderous applauses she and her surrogates get in their rally's). I anticipate her using the Bidens, Obamas, and Clintons in the upcoming weeks as the election nears. Can they do more? Sure. She could reach out to the media more, and somehow keep herself in the news cycles. If we perhaps each gave her more hours in the day!
Miss in 2016, Hit in 2024
The Media
HRC The media failed Hillary, and therefore the American people. The penchant for click-bait headlines, the inability to properly and roundly quash propaganda, misinformation, and disinformation had a massive impact on the 2016 election. The press continued to follow the tactics of the former president by allowing themselves to be distracted by deliberate, outrageous statements or actions. The media also gleefully and maliciously shared emails from the hacked DNC servers (something they've been reluctant to do with the hacked RNC servers in 2024). These tactics were successful in taking away focus from Hillary (especially in those key states), and provided untold hours of free advertisements for the candidate that was ultimately so destructive to democracy. The media would rather amplify "lock her up" chants and feign to be aghast than cover these vicious chants for what they were.
MVP They haven't learned their lesson. The media still continues to chase deliberate distracting statements, without qualifying the reason for these statements and seeing through the obvious distractions. They prefer to cover the hatred and rhetoric rather than facts that would help voters. Again, free press coverage provided to the former guy. We do have few exceptions, like Muir and Mace who were able to fact check 4 of the former guy's 33 egregious lies during the debate on September, 10th. We also have journalists like Daniel Dale (Canadian fact-checker extraordinaire on CNN) who are able to challenge statements (after the fact). We, as activists and voters, are having to build informational pages that then counter the easily shared misinformation (and even disinformation) out there. This is a lot of work that should have been done by the media, that is then done by netizens.
Miss in 2016, Miss in 2024
SCOTUS and RBG
HRC RBG passing away led to a brawl in the senate. McConnell, who put party before country decided to thumb his nose at the Obama administration. Republicans brought out voters in droves with the anticipation of a SCOTUS majority, something the Democrats were woefully underprepared for. RBG had the option to step down earlier during the Obama administration, and perhaps then her passing would not have led to the most distrusted SCOTUS with a lopsided majority that has been solely responsible for rolling back several protections for women, voters, citizens.
MVP Harris has been a champion of women's rights, Squarely placing the blame for the Trump abortion ban where it belongs. She successfully campaigned and stemmed the loss of house seats in 2022. This is one of her strongest arguments to be President, and the former guy has flip-flopped on this subject. Her arguments are cogent, and persuasive. Several states have women's reproductive rights on the ballot that will hopefully attract voters to the polling booth. There is a healthy disrespect for SCOTUS and a desire for reform of laws that will render SCOTUS a little less effective or all-powerful
Miss in 2016, Hit in 2024
The voters
HRC Many voters fell for disinformation, and chose either not to vote, vote third party, or worse. Voters chose to be led into believing Hillary was too feeble, when in fact, she was one of the strongest candidates. Voter apathy was also due to horrible polling by the so-called-pundits. They had her up by so much, people felt it wasn't necessary to vote. Hillary also played into the fact that she was the first female candidate, while not taking into account voter misogyny. The former President was able to hone into the messaging that resonated with voters (who were typically non-voters). They came out in droves, while typical eligible voters didn't.
MVP On July 21st, 2024, the memes came in droves. There were a multitude of virtual meetings with different sections of the populous declaring their support for Madame Vice President. We knew this was going to be a very short runway, and therefore a tall order to get to the finish line. We had to organize, and fast. People have done so with an unmitigated energy and gusto. Will this energy turn into votes? I hope so.
Miss in 2016, Expected hit in 2024
Foreign Influence
HRC Russia interfered. We have several annals of proof showing this to be true. Not only were there bots that spread disinformation at a breakneck pace, there were specific people successfully targeted based on social media algorithms, who then forwarded 70% of the misinformation used in the 2016 election. The Internet Research Agency was one such foreign entity (linked closely with the Russian government) that sought to influence the attitudes and voting of Americans. While this misinformation didn't necessarily change minds, it shored up minds of those who were already going to vote republican.
MVP They are back! While Social Media is a little more savvy in catching misinformation, it takes hours of research to combat these messages, while the forwards go viral. In essence, the problem continues to exist. It was recently discovered that the Russian entity, RT, is accused of using AI and bots to spread propaganda with provable false narratives about crime, immigration, the wars in the middle east and Ukraine with the intention of creating discord and division amongst voters. We've also seen efforts from China, as well as hacking by Iranian entities (although this was with the GOP). The rapid growth of AI has, in the recent past, led to an incredible array of fake videos and pictures. Some 58% of Americans have reported believing in at least one such fake viral post. Bad actors are not yet being held accountable, as this is an evolving legal area. Unless SM companies implement a rigorous effort in content moderation, we should expect more disinformation, and voters will need to educate ourselves in spotting these fake posts, and stop their wanton proliferation.
Miss in 2016, Likely miss in 2024
The fight for the candidacy
HRC This is going to be quite an unpopular opinion. It needs to be said, however, that Bernie Sanders' fight with HRC, had an influence on the elections. The primary contest was bitter, and long drawn resulting in disenfranchised voters. This prolonged battle undermined Hillary, and diverted her resources into a primary battle (as opposed to the general election). Bernie (unlike in 2020) was not as loudly vocal in turning out his base to vote for Hillary, and his actions at the DNC furthered distrust in HRC. Now, if Bernie wasn't a challenger, someone else would have been a challenger. Yet that someone else may have dropped from the primary once a signal of defeat was seen. Hence this difference. This, combined with the rally chants of "Lock her up" were devastating to her campaign. While this factor, by itself could not have caused the loss in 2016, it was the multiplier on top of other factors that contributed to the loss.
MVP While the primary winner was Biden, he stepped down. After he endorsed her, Kamala still needed to earn votes from delegates. This took working with every contingent in every state to secure votes, While this is seen by republicans as "there wasn't a primary", the fact that she was able to swiftly and deftly secure the votes, and bring Democrats into an incredible show of array is a testament to this candidate. She now has her would-be opponents in a primary (people such as Shapiro, Kelly, Cooper etc.) as surrogates who vociferously stump for her. This should not cause issues in the 2024 election.
Miss in 2016, Hit in 2024
Comey and the October Surprise
HRC I place a huge part of the blame for the results of the 2016 elections squarely at the feet of James Comey. He did a disservice to the country, and cannot be forgiven for his egregious actions. Even prior to his letter (10 days before the election, after early voting was well underway in most states), his treatment of the server issue was infuriating, at best. His denouncement of Hillary as "irresponsible" in May 2016 caused the repeated barrage of cries "Lock her up" and "But her emails" further damaging an already injured candidacy. She lost in battleground states by less than a percentage point. The DOJ takes overt steps to remain non-partisan and knows better than to make any moves that would unduly influence an election. Yet he did. In isolation, this would not have caused a loss. But this, in conjunction with many of the other errors caused the devastating results in the 2016 election.
MVP I do see an October surprise. Not in the form of a DOJ revelation, but in the Middle East. The war waged by Ishrael on Pal3stine is a huge factor in getting voters to the ballot box. There is a rift based on news reports over the last 11 months with some defending the oppressor, and those siding with the oppressed potentially voting for third parties, or sitting it out. It is in Bibi's interest to continue this war, and therefore peace seems elusive for this administration (seemingly ineffective or reluctant to effect change). While Kamala is hamstrung as Vice President, there are fingers pointed at her as she is part of the administration that has been unable to broker peace. Any escalation will only cause more voter anxiety and disillusionment, and could therefore influence the election. I suspect some kind of major change or deliberate provocation (perhaps major escalation with more countries involved) may occur in October, causing a disruption.
Miss in 2016, Expected miss in 2024
To recap, we still face some of the human errors we saw in 2016 (some worse). The media, foreign interference, and a yet-to-be-seen-October surprise (with the impending escalations in the wars) are factors that can't be discounted. A third party candidate could be a crucial spoiler this time around. However, I don't yet see seven human errors in this cycle. Therefore I am hopeful the electorate will come out in droves. Voters still need to remain vigilant and watch for other factors that could influence this election. To quote one of my (now) favorite politicians "we can sleep when we are dead".
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